Reference

Lectures

Guided routes through the lab for a teaching session. Each step opens a page with its set-up already in place and shows the lecturer's notes in a bar at the bottom of the screen. Every step is an ordinary link, so a class can be sent straight to step three, and you can follow a lecture on your own too.

Probability foundations

10 steps, about 90 minutes

From events to the binomial: the rules of probability on the clinic's patients, Bayes' rule with 10,000 people, random variables and the off-by-one trap. Chapters 1 to 5.

  1. Experiments, events and probability 10 min
  2. Watch a relative frequency settle 8 min
  3. The addition rule, term by term 10 min
  4. Conditional probability 10 min
  5. Independent or mutually exclusive? 7 min
  6. Bayes' rule with 10,000 people 12 min
  7. Random variables and the retailer's questions 10 min
  8. Ask a die every question 8 min
  9. The binomial and the off-by-one trap 8 min
  10. Drill: words to probabilities 7 min

From distributions to confidence intervals

10 steps, about 90 minutes

From the normal to the confidence interval: densities and fat tails on real data, z-scores, the central limit theorem watched as it happens, Student's t, and what 95 % means. Chapters 7 to 11.

  1. The normal: μ moves it, σ widens it 8 min
  2. Brambleford: does the model fit? 8 min
  3. The simulated share's fat tails 10 min
  4. z-scores: the delivery or the basket? 8 min
  5. Binomial to normal 8 min
  6. The standard error and the CLT 10 min
  7. Watch the CLT happen 12 min
  8. Student's t against the normal 8 min
  9. Build an interval for the coffee 8 min
  10. What 95 % means 10 min

Case-study workshop

4 steps, about 60 minutes

Four business questions worked in small groups, each ending with checked answers: a vaccine batch, a share's returns, a software team's sprint and a bulb supplier's claim.

  1. The Brambleford vaccine batch 15 min
  2. A simulated share's daily and yearly returns 15 min
  3. Bug-fix times 15 min
  4. Bulb reliability 15 min
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